WHAT’S Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation About the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started investing in bitcoins and I’ve heard a great deal of talks about inflation and deflation however, not many people actually know and think about what inflation and deflation are. But let’s start with inflation.

We always needed ways to trade value and probably the most practical way to do it is to link it with money. In past times it worked quite well as the money that was issued was linked to gold. So every central bank needed enough gold to pay back all the money it issued. However, during the past century this changed and gold is not what’s giving value to money but promises. Since you can guess it’s very easy to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks aren’t renouncing to do so. That is why they’re printing money, so in other words they are “creating wealth” out of nothing without really having it. This process not merely exposes us to risks of economic collapse but it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money is worth less, whoever is selling something has to raise the price of goods to reflect their real value, that is called inflation. But what’s behind the amount of money printing? Why are central banks doing this? Well the answer they would give you is that by de-valuing their currency they’re helping the exports.

In fairness, inside our global economy this is true. However, that’s not the only reason. By issuing fresh money we can afford to pay back the debts we’d, put simply we make new debts to cover the old ones. But that is not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we are de-facto de-valuing our debts. That’s why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s better to grow because debts are cheap. But what are the consequences of all this? It’s hard to store wealth. If you keep carefully the money (you worked hard to obtain) in your bank account you are actually losing wealth because your money is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank has an inflation target at around 2% we can well say that keeping money costs all of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, based on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is often the opposite of inflation in fact it is the biggest nightmare for the central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we have deflation when overall the prices of goods fall. Bitcoin Era would be caused by a rise of value of money. For starters, it would hurt spending as consumers will be incentivised to save money because their value will increase overtime. Alternatively merchants will be under constant pressure. They will have to sell their goods quick otherwise they’ll lose money as the price they will charge for their services will drop as time passes. But if there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt can be a real burden as it will only get bigger over time. Because our economies are based on debt you can imagine what will be the consequences of deflation.

So to conclude, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Which means future generations can pay our debts. Deflation however makes growth harder nonetheless it implies that future generations won’t have much debt to cover (in such context it will be possible to cover slow growth).

OK so how all of this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are made to be an alternative for money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They are limited in number and we will never have more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they are designed to be deflationary. Now we have all seen what the results of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it would still be possible for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from a debt-based economy to a share-based economy. Actually, because contracting debts in bitcoins will be very costly business can still obtain the capital they want by issuing shares of these company. This could be a fascinating alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, just for clarity, I must say that section of the costs of borrowing capital will undoubtedly be reduced under bitcoins because the fees would be extremely low and there will not be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This would buffer a number of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to cover back the huge debts that we inherited from days gone by generations.